The Guangdong Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49 in August 2018.3, down 0 from the previous month.9 percentage points (see Figure 1), compared with the same period last year (50.9）回落1.6 percentage points, the first time since March 2016 that the index has fallen back to the line between expansion and contraction (50.0）下。From the perspective of the index structure, the order index fell sharply for two consecutive months (in July, it fell 1.8 percent, down 1 percent in August.7 percentage points), has fallen below the boom-bust line;The production index fell by 1. 1% this month.5 percent, the lowest in nearly 30 months;In addition, affected by the decline in orders, raw material inventories rose, and enterprise employment continued to decline。From a comprehensive analysis, the overall operation of the industrial economy is stable, but under the influence of obvious changes in the external environment, the situation of stability and change has initially emerged。The details are as follows:
Figure 1Trend chart of manufacturing PMI in Guangdong Province from January 2013 to August 2018
The production index (volume of production) is 50.1, down 1 from the previous month.Five percentage points, the lowest recorded in nearly 30 months。
The new orders index (product orders) was 48.7, a significant decline from the previous month.7 percentage points, has fallen sharply for two consecutive months, and is the first time in nearly 30 months to fall below the line of growth or contraction。Among them, export orders were 49.7, remained below the line of growth and contraction for three consecutive months, showing a contraction trend。Since May this year, the order index of manufacturing enterprises in our province began to show a downward trend, and export orders began to fall below the line of growth and contraction in June, and the external environment has significantly changed。
The raw materials inventory index was 50.9, up 2 from the previous month.Four percentage points。Since May this year, the raw material inventory index has been below the line of growth and contraction for three consecutive months, and has remained at 49.The low range below 0, but suddenly rebounded sharply this month, considering that production activity has slowed down due to the decline in orders。
The employment index (production and operation personnel) was 47.5, down 0 from the previous month.Eight percentage points。Since February this year, the number of manufacturing jobs has continued to decrease, and the decline has increased this month, considering that it is related to the slowdown in production activities。
The supplier delivery time index is 50.4, down 0 from the previous month.4 percentage points, the supplier delivery time index for two consecutive months on the line of growth and contraction, delivery time slowed down。
Figure 2Trend chart of sub-index of Manufacturing PMI in Guangdong Province from January 2013 to August 2018
Table Table of major sub-indexes of manufacturing PMI of Guangdong Province from August 2017 to August 2018
In August 2018, the Guangdong Electronics and information industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 55.7, up 4 from the previous month.0 percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for electrical machinery and special equipment was 49.4, down 0 from the previous month.Four percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the food and beverage sector was 52.7, unchanged from the previous month;The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the textile and garment industry was 46.4, down 4 from the previous month.0 percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for petroleum and chemicals was 49.4, down 1 from the previous month.Three percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for auto manufacturing was 46.8, down 3 from the previous month.Three percentage points;The pharmaceutical manufacturing purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 55.6, down 2 from the previous month.Four percentage points;The Forest paper purchasing managers' Index (PMI) was 46.9, up 1 from the previous month.Six percentage points。
Expert interpretation
Chen Hongyu, a professor at the Party School of the Provincial Party Committee, believes that the PMI index of our province was 49 in August.3, down 0. 0 from the previous month.Nine percentage points。This is the province's PMI index for 29 consecutive months in the boom and contraction line above, the first time to fall below the line。Of the five weighted indexes that determine the PMI index, four fell from the previous month, with the production index and the new orders index, the most weighted, falling sharply by 1 percent from the previous month.5个和1.Seven percentage points。Only the inventories of raw materials index rose sharply 2.Four percentage points。Of the 11 sub-indexes, 8 fell this month from the previous month, including the purchase index and finished goods inventory index, which also fell sharply from the previous month by 2.6个和1.Three percentage points。The change trajectory of the above indexes shows that, first, most of the manufacturing enterprises in our province have reduced production for several months, resulting in a gradual increase in raw material inventories。Second, the external demand of enterprises has not improved, and the number of new orders continues to contract, and the purchase volume of enterprises has also decreased。Third, buying prices are still high, and companies are speeding up shipments and reducing inventories of finished goods to maintain turnover。
Chen Hongyu pointed out that the reasons for the current round of consolidation that has continued since May this year are more complex, both the problem of the continuity of old and new momentum in the transformation of domestic industry, and the negative impact of rapid changes in international economic and political factors。Since the manufacturing PMI index of our province has been in an expansion trend since March 2016, this round of consolidation is in a higher base range。From January to July this year, the indicator of large-scale industries in our province, although the year-on-year growth rate is only 5.9%, but state-owned holding enterprises above designated size increased by 7%.Private industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 8%.1%, the three pillar industries such as electronic information industry, electrical machinery industry and automobile manufacturing industry increased by 9% respectively.2%、8.1%和10.5%, the growth rate is higher than the province's average industrial level above designated size。On the whole, the manufacturing industry in our province has accumulated a certain potential energy for expansion, and is adapting to the new situation of stability and change, and moving toward a more stable development range。
To this end, Chen Hongyu suggested that while continuing to help manufacturing enterprises reduce costs, it is necessary to focus on the deep reasons for the fluctuations of some indicators in recent months, analyze the impact of domestic and international factors, in order to take more targeted countermeasures。In particular, we should seize the opportunity of the current export market to stabilize and actively organize product production and export。On the other hand, it is necessary to build a relevant policy system as soon as possible around the promotion of quality brands, promoting the transformation of scientific research results, docking scientific and technological innovation corridors, promoting green manufacturing, and promoting small and micro enterprises, so as to enhance the internal competitiveness of the manufacturing industry。
(Contributed by Asia-Pacific Economic Index Research Center, Guangdong Modern Logistics Research Institute, Operations Monitoring Division)